The Vermont argument at the Supreme Court this morning was a lot of fun, mostly because of the presence in the Bar line of New People. The Marshall v. Marshall gang were out in force, too, of which more in my next post.
On Vermont, my theory is this: Justice Breyer, having no investment in study or interest in campaign finance matters, acquires attitudes based on who among his colleagues he sits near. Now, with the addition of Justice Alito, Breyer has crossed sides and is now comfy next to Justice Thomas.
And boy can you tell.
(Editorial note: before they shuffled seats, I am told Breyer was sitting next to Thomas, just on the other side of the bench. Frankly, I don’t recall, but I feel compelled to acknowledge that it may not all be location, location, location.)
But first, the preliminaries: Justice Breyer delivered the Court’s decision in the Operation Rescue case, in which it concluded that the Hobbs Act does not extend to violence “plain and simple.” 8-0, and may I say that Justice Breyer did a great job presenting the opinion. Justice Thomas then delivered the Court’s 8-0 opinion in an antitrust case involving a joint venture. More of a snooze, unfortunately.
And, before I forget: Just because you cover the court for a big paper doesn’t mean you can carry on like you’re at some cocktail party when everyone else has been “encouraged” by the Marshalls to pipe down.
Then we had the swearing in ceremony, and I want to congratulate John Pomeranz as a new member of the Supreme Court Bar, and Bob Bauer for moving his membership.
THEN… The Vermont argument. Bauer has already posted on it in some rich detail, so I’ll try not to be repetitive. Remarkably, the Court gave Jim Bopp several minutes of uninterrupted explication before bouncing questions. Several of the Justices wanted him to explain why remand wasn’t appropriate (I counted Souter, Ginsberg and Stevens) - I’m not sure this option gained any traction during the argument, but it scares me that it might become appealing if the Court wants to buy some time. I thought Jim Bopp did a fine job of explaining that the Second Circuit decision contained legal flaws that should be corrected by the Supreme Court now, not later.
I have to say that the state expenditure limits seemed to have no friends, and the low contribution limits, receiving the pointed criticism from Justice Breyer they did, might be on shaky terrain too.
You read that right. I have given Justice Breyer a hard time in the past. Today I have no such remarks. Both Roberts and Breyer gave the state’s defense of the law a roughing up. Roberts early on asked whether corruption was a big problem in Vermont - predictably this was answered in the affirmative. “How many prosecutions for corruption have you brought?” he asked. “None” came the reply. I’m not sure how material that is, but it wasn’t a good moment for the state’s attorney.
Breyer in his questions brought out the fact the the contribution limits, which applied equally to parties and extend for a cycle (not just an election) would seem to give incumbents a tremendous advantage. The state responded that incumbents “had a bigger advantage before” to which Breyer replied “that doesn’t help you.”
Breyer seemed especially concerned about the ability of parties to help slates. I found his concerns about party efficacy very encouraging. How to make sense of him today? He may be someone who thinks that campaigns ought to be centralized within candidates and parties - I think other places his lack of interest in the rights of other entities is disturbing. But if that’s how he sees this area, in this case he may be refreshingly critical of Vermont’s regulatory regime.
Souter also seemed skeptical, especially about the Vermont law that treats independent expenditures as presumptively “coordinated” if they mention 6 or fewer candidates. The State argued that if a candidate produced some evidence - even just an affidavit swearing he didn’t coordinate — the presumption “disappeared.” In rebuttal, Bopp read the law to the Court and it didn’t sound like that was how it would work to me. I don’t think the Justices bought it, either.
The Intervenor’s counsel was hit early by Justice Roberts, who noted that their argument contains an inconsistency. On the one hand they argue that low limits are fine in Vermont because Vermont campaigns aren’t very expensive, but on the other they contend there is a state need to restrict spending in campaigns with limits. Intervenors argued that this was because candidates raise more than they need. Well - according to whom?
Breyer here did not seem convinced that Intervenors has successfully distinguished the facts here from Buckley, and made the case that Buckley’s conclusion that expenditures limits are unconstitutional somehow didn’t control.
I couldn’t help but wonder what Anna Nicole Smith was thinking as she sat through this argument. Is she worried about how Vermont legislators spend their time? I would assume that she would be against spending limits (in the abstract) and this assumption was “confirmed” by one of the many Marshall-related counsel sitting near me.
Update: Ed Foley’s report predicts that Vermont is in trouble, though he shies away from predicting how much trouble. I think the presumptive coordination and expenditure limit are toast, and I will go out on a limb and predict that the contribution limits are found unconstitutionally restrictive as well.
Wouldn’t that be something?